Jimmy's weblog

Since you are my readers, and I have not been much of a traveller, I will not talk about people a thousand miles off, but come as near home as I can. As the time is short, I will leave out all the flattery, and retain all the criticism. — Henry David Thoreau

Archive for the 'News and politics' Category

Quick analysis of 2004 exit polls

Friday November 5, 2004 14:54

“Moral values” led the economy 22%-20% as the most important election issue. Bush won 80% (Kerry 18%) of “moral voters” while support from “economic voters” was an exact mirror (Kerry 80% - Bush 18%).
Terrorism ran third (19%) in voter’s minds; those who believed it was a top issue voted strongly for Bush.
Iraq placed fourth (15%), [...]

“America has spoken…”

Thursday November 4, 2004 07:12

“America has spoken and I’m humbled by the trust and the confidence of my fellow citizens,” — George W Bush, November 2, 2004

Market-based election prediction

Wednesday November 3, 2004 09:53

Recent trading on the presidential election at Tradesports shows a massive swing towards Kerry, likely reflecting encouraging results from leaked exit polls.
I’ve just registered and tried to place an order to buy Bush wins. Not because I think he’ll win, but because I can’t resist the current price of 25 (3-1 odds). Unfortunately, [...]

Virtual tally room

Tuesday November 2, 2004 18:58

For hardcore election watchers, the Australian Federal election had The Virtual Tally room. The closest US equivalent that I’ve found is CNN’s election results page.
Update:
Yahoo! and C-SPAN also have good coverage.

Socialist victory in Uruguay

Tuesday November 2, 2004 12:19

With all the excitement over the US presidential election, it’s easy to forget other American countries also exist - and have elections. Overnight from Uruguay comes the news that socialist Tabare Vazquez has won the presidential election by more than 16% from his nearest rival. It’s the first time Uruguay has ever elected a [...]

Presidential vote prediction

Tuesday November 2, 2004 10:57

A quick US presidential vote prediction: Kerry by ~300 electoral votes to ~238.
An interesting conclusion to today’s Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence Report:

What is clear is this: A repeat of 2000 is unlikely unless the two parties create one. They seem committed to that course. If they do, they will be playing with fire during war. From [...]

Anti-abortion, pro-orgy?

Monday October 18, 2004 12:15

George Bush has openly spoken of his desire to appoint more Supreme Court justices in the mould of Antonin Scalia. Ultra-conservative, deeply religious and, most importantly, in favour of overturning Roe v Wade, the landmark judgement which protects abortion as a constitutional right in the United States.
But there’s another, less well-known and more liberal [...]

Howard the younger

Thursday October 14, 2004 11:31

Miranda Devine writes: “He might be 65 but John Howard understands how younger people are thinking,”.
Her evidence?
John Howard and his spamming sons partied with a former Big Brother winner until the ghastly hour of 2am.
<sarcasm>Well, I’m convinced.</sarcasm>
Update: It appears I’m not the only one sceptical of claims that John Howard is a modern-day Pied [...]

Australian Christian Lobby

Thursday October 14, 2004 08:17

Jim Wallace, executive chairman of the Australian Christian Lobby, wrote an opinion piece in The Age yesterday claiming that the Christian vote had a large influence in the election. Apparently Labor’s election loss can be put down in a large part due to their “underestimat[ion] or just ignor[ance of] the awakening of this constituency”.
He [...]

Careful what you wish for

Wednesday October 13, 2004 12:20

Some of the most significant images in the last few days of the election campaign were the television screens filled with Tasmanian Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union (CFMEU) members cheering John Howard as he launched his forestry policy. Seeing one of Australia’s most militant unions publicly supporting their natural enemy raised questions in [...]