A quick US presidential vote prediction: Kerry by ~300 electoral votes to ~238.
An interesting conclusion to today’s Stratfor Geopolitical Intelligence Report:
What is clear is this: A repeat of 2000 is unlikely unless the two parties create one. They seem committed to that course. If they do, they will be playing with fire during war. From an objective standpoint, a victory by either candidate too substantial to be challenged by the lawyers is far preferable to what seems to be coming — a close election and the country torn apart.
There are two conditions required for a repeat of 2000 - (i) an electoral vote close enough for one state to make a difference to the overall winner, and (ii) voting in that state to be within the margin of error for the vote count (i.e. it is statistically impossible to declare a winner). It’s unlikely that both will occur again this year.
What is far more likely is that both sides will challenge the (any / all) results unless there is a comprehensive winner. 2000 broke the taboo of high-stakes legal challenges against electoral results and 2004 will bring more of the same.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 2nd, 2004 at 10:16 and is filed under News and politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.