Recent trading on the presidential election at Tradesports shows a massive swing towards Kerry, likely reflecting encouraging results from leaked exit polls.
I’ve just registered and tried to place an order to buy Bush wins. Not because I think he’ll win, but because I can’t resist the current price of 25 (3-1 odds). Unfortunately, while my registration has gone through, my credit card deposit hasn’t (and Bush has now moved back to 30).
Exit poll data:
FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY
NM: 49/49 - TIE
NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH
Update: The money has gone through and I’m offering to buy I’ve just bought Bush wins at 30.
Update (13:19): Sold Bush wins at 40 (for a massive profit of US$5) and have another sell position at 50. Both my metaphoric and literal monies are still on a Kerry victory though Tradesports is starting to swing towards Bush.
Update (15:39): Not looking good for Kerry at this stage. Ohio and Florida will be the key states and Bush is ahead in both, as well as Tradesports where he is up to 80.
Florida is nearly fully counted and Bush has a five percent lead - the only hope for Kerry is the large number of absentee votes still to be tallied.
Bush leads by four percent in Ohio with two thirds of the vote counted. Polling booths in the urban centres are still open, leaving Kerry with some chance.
Final Update (22:15): It looks like Bush will win Ohio and retain his presidency.
The Ohio Secretary of State estimates there are about 200,000 provisional ballots which won’t be counted for eleven days. Kerry trails by 2,794,346 to 2,658,125 (a difference of 136,221) so he would have to win 84% of the outstanding votes to take the state. Despite the fact that a lot of these provisional ballots are likely to be Democrat (due to Republican voter challenges), it’s virtually impossible to see Kerry gaining enough ground to win.
As for the market, I’m wishing I hadn’t sold Bush wins at 40! Going short on Bush wins at 50 cost me more money and I still have Kerry wins at 10 just in case.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 3rd, 2004 at 9:55 and is filed under News and politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.