Jimmy's weblog

Wow, what an election result! To the surprise of almost everyone (including both the Coalition and Labor), John Howard has pulled off a decisive election win and increased his government’s majority. Even more importantly, it looks like the Liberal / National coalition will take control of the Senate for the first time since 1981.

I have a strong dislike of John Howard but I have to admit that he now truly does have a mandate from the Australian people. Starting July 1 next year, the government will be in a position to pass legislation which was previously blocked by the Senate. At a minimum, we can expect to see the remaing 50.1% of Telstra sold, laws to limit unfair dismissal claims, and cross-media ownership deregulation.

Obviously the strong swing to the government is the major story of the election but more interesting (at least for me) is the story of Family First (aka the lesbian-witch burners). If the Coalition fail to win a fourth Sentate seat in Queensland, Steve Fielding, the Family First senator from Victoria, looks likely to hold the balance of power.

At first glance, you wouldn’t think it likely that someone who received less than 15 percent of the required vote would be elected to the Senate. Yet, that’s exactly what has happened as a result of our quirky preferential voting system and some decidedly ugly preference deals.

Family First have two parties to thank - the Democrats and the Australian Labor Party (ALP) - as both parties chose to make preference deals with Family First ahead of the more ideologically similar Greens party. The ALP in an effort to prop up their socially conservative Senator, Jacinta Collins, and the Democrats in a desperate attempt to retain a Senate seat (which failed miserably). Despite the Greens polling nearly five times as many votes, the seat went to Steve Fielding.

If the government fails to win a clear majority in the Senate, Family First will be in a position to supply the deciding vote and the ALP have only themselves to blame.