Jimmy's weblog

It looks more and more like the Coalition will win 38 Senate seats, leaving them one seat short of an outright majority but still in a position to control Senate procedures. Family First are almost certain to take the last Victorian Senate seat and win the balance of power.

Although Family First is a socially conservative party and likely to support the government in many areas, they do have some contrasting policies. They were against the war in Iraq (though they are in favour of reconstruction efforts now), they support aboriginal reconciliation and an apology to the stolen generation, and they appear to be concerned about the potential effects of media deregulation. The Coalition may find negotiation doesn’t turn out to be completely smooth sailing, though everyone has their price (just ask Brian Harradine about his support for the sale of Telstra).

With a very low primary vote, Family First won their Senate seat largely due to their preference deal with the Australian Labor Party (and the Democrats to a lesser extent).

The Senate race in Victoria clearly gave three seats to the Liberals and two to Labor, leaving the last seat up in the air.

The final five parties were:

1. The Greens - 0.6675 quotas
2. The Australian Labor Party (ALP) - 0.5936
3. Family First - 0.3697
4. Democratic Labor Party (DLP) - 0.2132
5. Democrats - 0.1457

Once the Democrats were eliminated, their quota was redistributed leaving:

1. The Greens - 0.6835
2. ALP - 0.5936
3. Family First - 0.4994
4. DLP - 0.2132

Next to go were the DLP leaving three parties standing.

1. Family First - 0.7126
2. The Greens - 0.6835
3. ALP - 0.5936

Finally the ALP is eliminated and their preferences go to Family First giving them the final Victorian Senate seat. Note that The Greens preferenced the ALP above Family First but the favour was not returned.

1. Family First - 1.3062
2. The Greens - 0.6835

I’d like to believe the backroom dealers at the ALP have learnt their lesson but I’m not counting on it.

Update: Could it be that Labor helped the Coalition and Family First in another way?

Regular readers will remember the haste with which the government introduced an amendment banning gay marriage - an amendment which took priority over anti-terrorism legislation and wouldn’t have passed the Senate without Labor’s support.

A quick browse of the Family First website finds:

To this end Family First will pursue a range of strategies to reduce the incidence of and negative outcomes of family and relationship breakdown by:

• Providing relationship and marriage education as well as ongoing opportunities for building and developing skills so that families have optimal chances for success
• Providing relationship and family rescue and preservation programs for the provision of support and counselling for relationships and marriages under pressure
• Providing divorce recovery and separation programs that offer strategies and support to every family member
• Explaining the extra benefits marriage bring to family life and increasing opportunities to help people, especially young Australians to select marriage as the best environment in which to raise a family
• Affirming and defending the institution of marriage as being a union of a man and a woman to the exclusion of all others, voluntarily entered into for life

Is it a coincidence that the rushed Commonwealth Marriage Act amendment used exactly the same language? Was this a condition of the preference deal Howard personally negotiated with Family First? Did Labor shoot themselves in the foot by so eagerly passing the bill in the Senate?

Enquiring minds wish to know…