Jim Wallace, executive chairman of the Australian Christian Lobby, wrote an opinion piece in The Age yesterday claiming that the Christian vote had a large influence in the election. Apparently Labor’s election loss can be put down in a large part due to their “underestimat[ion] or just ignor[ance of] the awakening of this constituency”.
He continues:
The response from the Christian constituency was immediate, with the Australian Christian Lobby boasting a sustained growth in membership of 120 a month during 2004.
As importantly, individual Christians responded well during the election campaign itself. Nearly 6000 attended more than 30 Australian Christian Lobby “meet your candidate” forums mainly conducted in marginal seats around the country, and thousands of voters guides were distributed through church networks nationally. Of those seats where the ACL campaigned, more than 60 per cent recorded two-party preferred swings to the Government above the national average.
So let me get this straight.
The Australian Christian Lobby has gained (at most) 1120 members this year, out of 12,871,780 Australians on the Commonwealth Electoral Roll when it closed on August 31, and Labor lost the election because it didn’t take them seriously enough?.
60 percent of seats where the ACL campaigned recorded swings to the government above the national average? So what about the other 40 percent? Can Jim convince us that there weren’t any other reasons for the swing? Maybe the seats where the ACL is likely to campaign are in the mortage-belt with residents strongly concerned about interest rates?
Family First may end up controlling the Senate (though that is looking less likely by the day as the Nationals move ahead in Queensland) but that comes on top of a national vote of less than 2%. Their seat in Victoria came with just 1.75% of the vote, less than half the 4% required for the Australian Election Comission to return their deposit! Certainly not a unqualified show of support from the electorate.
To put this in perspective, Family First’s 1.99% national vote is less than the total independent vote of 2.38%, 50% more than the Democrats’ (who were destroyed at the election) 1.17%, and close to 5% less than the Greens who gained 6.91% nation-wide.
Family First have reasonably enlightened policies on Iraq, refugees and Aboriginal reconciliation, but their policies on censorship, abortion and homosexuality shouldn’t be taken as reflecting the majority of Australians. Jim Wallace may just carrying out his duties, but he’ll need more than 2% support before he can be listened to seriously.
Tim Blair Dunlop agrees (though he’s far less polite).
Update: It’s been a tough week so please forgive my slander. Tim Dunlop agrees, not Tim Blair. I still can’t figure out how I got the two mixed up.
October 14th, 2004 at 21:03
Ah but there were only 12 apostles and they formed the Lord’s Majority in the House!
October 15th, 2004 at 0:08
It’s Tim Dunlop, who agrees.
Thanks for the info in the post; it’s good for us lazy buggers who don’t go looking for the stats; and for those of us who read newspapers on the rare ocassion.